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Forecast of Exchange Rate Determinants in Nigeria
Content Structure of Forecast of Exchange Rate Determinants in Nigeria
- The abstract contains the research problem, the objectives, methodology, results, and recommendations
- Chapter one of this thesis or project materials contains the background to the study, the research problem, the research questions, research objectives, research hypotheses, significance of the study, the scope of the study, organization of the study, and the operational definition of terms.
- Chapter two contains relevant literature on the issue under investigation. The chapter is divided into five parts which are the conceptual review, theoretical review, empirical review, conceptual framework, and gaps in research
- Chapter three contains the research design, study area, population, sample size and sampling technique, validity, reliability, source of data, operationalization of variables, research models, and data analysis method
- Chapter four contains the data analysis and the discussion of the findings
- Chapter five contains the summary of findings, conclusions, recommendations, contributions to knowledge, and recommendations for further studies.
- References: The references are in APA
- Questionnaire.
Abstract of Forecast of Exchange Rate Determinants in Nigeria
It has been noted that the Nigeria economy has gone through series of transformation since independence. Her exchange rate determination has taken various shapes from administratively deformed rate to a market determined rate. These have also be associated with deficient problems. As a result of these problems, the government through the help of the CBN (Central Bank of Nigeria) tries to regulate the exchange rate system. The adoption of Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP), where main element was Second-tier Foreign Exchange Market.
The hypotheses of this study indicate that there is a significant positive relationship between Exchange Rate, Interest Rate, External Reserve and Inflation and there is a negative relationship between exchange rate, Gross Domestic Product and Balance of Payment. To validate this hypothesis data gotten from secondary sources were estimated and analyzed among the Ordinary Least Square Method (OLS) and Cochrane-Orcutt Method. The independent variables used were balance of payment, Gross Domestic Product, Interest Rate, External Reserve and Inflation, while the dependable variable was exchange rate. There was also a drive towards forecasting exchange rate.
The empirical analysis showed that about 87% of the mean value of the exchange rate is explained by the explanatory variables. This shows that the estimated model regression line is a good fit and the result of the null hypothesis for the forecast was less than the figure of the “t” take, which means it forecast well.
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